WE REGRET TO INFORM YOU...

(December 12, 2007) - We regret to inform you that – due to lack of funding – this year, there will only be nine and a half days of Christmas. Several other holiday celebrations likely will be pared back as well. Please make your preparations accordingly and be prepared for further cuts in the coming years.

Here’s why.

Over the last forty years, Americans have started living longer and, therefore, receive Social Security and Medicare benefits for longer periods of time. Second, knowing those 60 and older are more likely to vote than their younger counterparts, Congress has passed legislation making these programs increasingly more generous – and expensive – than originally planned. Taken together, these factors have created a situation no one can control.

According to Government Accountability Office chief, David Walker, "The first baby boomer will reach 62 and be eligible for early retirement of Social Security on January 1, 2008. They'll be eligible for Medicare just three years later. And when those boomers start retiring in mass, then that will be a tsunami of spending that could swamp our ship of state if we don't get serious."

A "tsunami of spending." It doesn’t get much more graphic than that.

Update: Five days for Kwanzaa; seven days for Hanukkah.

Said another way, in 1966, spending on programs like Social Security and Medicare amounted to only 16% of federal expenditures. In 1986, it was 30%. Last year it was 40%. With the retirement of the baby boomers, spending on these programs will swamp the federal budget in the not-so-distant future.

As these programs overwhelm the federal budget, they will inevitably consume more and more of the dollars in the general fund, leaving Congress no choice but to reduce its commitment to other national needs and activities. State and local governments are already resentful of the way the federal government mandates programs and policies without adequately funding them. Soon, those federal dollars will be in even shorter supply.

What does this mean for state and local governments?

Fewer federal dollars for highway and infrastructure maintenance. Less money for public schools, universities, and federal financial aid for students. Decreasing revenue for health programs for seniors and children. And an increased expectation that the states and local governments will have to pick up more of the tab. Are your state and local governments ready for this? Probably not.

Sadly, to talk most elected officials or those running for office, it seems like business as usual at every level. These people acknowledge the fiscal threat posed by the ever-expanding costs of Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare, but seem to have no willingness to tackle the problem. And that’s frightening. Worse, of course, is when politicians purposefully ignore the truth and claim there is no problem. This isn’t just frightening; it’s political malpractice.

So get ready, America. For cutbacks in your favorite federally funded school program, longer delays before that pothole is repaired, an ever-increasing tax rate, and an ever-decreasing amount of take home pay. Those are the options that await your state and local elected officials. That’s unavoidably what will happen if Congress and the next President continue to ignore the coming entitlement crisis.

And that sound you hear? It’s the hooves of five – not eight – tiny reindeer. Comet, Cupid, and Blitzen got their pink slips after Thanksgiving.